亚化咨询：中国地炼行业2016年开始进入景气周期将增加制氢需求

　　2016-3-1

　　亚化咨询认为，在地炼行业逐步获得进口原油使用权和原油进口权，国际油价持续低迷使国际原油贸易进入买方市场，以及国内独有的成品油定价机制三大因素的推动下，中国地炼行业将从2016年开始进入景气周期，并为制氢行业带来新的市场机遇。

　　公开信息显示，2016年1月国内地炼行业维持高开工率。位于山东省东部的39家地炼企业1月份生产了505万吨汽油和柴油，相比去年大幅增加。亚化咨询认为，以下三大因素促使中国地炼行业从2016年开始进入景气周期。

　　1.地炼行业逐步获得进口原油使用权和原油进口权(原油进口“双权”)。2.国际油价持续低迷，国际原油贸易进入买方市场。3.国内独有的成品油定价机制。

　　从2015年开始，国家主管部门逐步放开进口原油使用权和原油进口权。2015年，地炼行业有13家获得进口原油使用配额、6家获得原油非国营贸易进口资质。2016年初，原油进口“双权”的放开继续推进，多家地炼企业提交了配额申请，等待审批。2016年2月29日，中国16家地方炼油企业宣布联合成立石油采购联盟，抱团进入国际原油贸易市场。

　　由于全球供需失衡，国际油价从2014下半年开始下跌，到2016年初已经跌至30美元/桶区间，国际原油贸易已进入买方市场。原油价格低迷不仅大大降低了地炼企业的原料成本，而且地炼行业掌握了原料选择的主动权，可以提高炼油原料的质量。

　　此外，因国内独有的成品油定价机制，在原油价格低于40美元/桶时，炼油行业利润丰厚。下面分别以2015年第四季度和2016年1月份的进口原油为原料，计算炼油并批发出售汽油的利润空间。

　　根据海关数据，2015年第四季度，中国进口原油8688万吨，总金额295亿美元，平均339.7美元/吨。人民币对美元汇率按照6.3估算，进口价格平均为2140元/吨。公开信息显示，2016年1月，中国进口原油2669.1万吨，同比减少4.6%；进口均价为每吨1819.4元，同比下跌36.4%。

　　国家发改委最近一次调整成品油价格是2016年1月13日，调整后供交通、民航等专项用户汽、柴油标准品最高供应价格每吨分别为6365元和5420元。(汽油第四、第五阶段标准品分别为90号和89号汽油，价格包含消费税、增值税以及城建税和教育费附加)。如果以此价格作为成品油出厂价估算，可以计算目前汽油标准品不含税费的批发价格为2956元/吨。

　　根据亚化咨询炼油成本模型，可以计算分别以2015年第四季度的进口原油，和2016年1月份的进口原油为原料，生产汽油并以批发价格销售，每吨汽油的(所得税前)利润分别为880元/吨和1146元/吨。在当前能源化工行业普遍不景气的大环境下利润可观。对于拥有零售渠道的大型地炼企业，还可以进一步获取零售环节的利润。

　　综上所述，在多重利好的推动下，中国地炼行业2016年开始进入景气周期。公开信息显示，成达新能源、科力达、华联石化、海化石化、大连恒力石化、河南丰利石化、亚通石化、垦利石化等企业在2016年有新建或扩建炼油产能的计划。

　　氢气是炼油行业的重要原料，深度加氢脱硫是生产低硫清洁油品的重要手段。中国地炼行业的产能扩张与国家对清洁油品标准的不断升级，将增加炼油行业的制氢需求。亚化咨询认为，大规模的煤制氢，以及在低油价背景下的渣油气化制氢，因其成本优势，并可以联产蒸汽和电力，将成为未来炼厂补充氢源的主要发展方向。

　　第三届中国制氢与先进煤气化技术研讨会将于2016年3月17日在山东济南召开。会议将探讨全球与中国炼油行业氢气需求，炼厂不同制氢方案的经济性比较，先进煤气化技术进展与应用，氢气分离提纯工艺路线，中小规模制氢解决方案，化工园区氢气与合成气供应成功经验，新能源制氢的可行性分析等。

　　由亚化咨询主办的第二届中国油品升级技术经济研讨会，以及首届中国炼化一体化研讨会将于2016年6月中旬在厦门召开。届时政府产业规划部门，国际炼化企业，炼化央企以及地方炼油企业等将集聚一堂，探讨国家产业政策对炼厂油品升级进程的影响，以及十三五期间新建炼化一体化项目发展规划情况。

　　对现代煤化工和高端石化行业的投资者和参与者而言，了解和判断国家政策发展及其走势；新型煤化工和高端石化项目的技术经济可行性；示范项目建设进度和运行进展；未来产能增长趋势和市场需求等；并以此作为公司决策的依据是非常重要的。为了给行业和企业决策者提供独立的、客观的分析评论和参考意见，作为专注于能源化工新兴领域的行业研究机构，亚化咨询推出了《中国现代煤化工和高端石化年度系列报告2016》。

　　欲知更多详情请致电：021-50329633-116或18019146895胡经理

　　ASIACHEM: High Prosperity Cycle of Chinese Local Refinery Industry starting from 2016 is expected to Bring up Hydrogen Demand

　　2016-3-1

　　ASIACHEM believes in that, under the push of three factors, i.e. gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries, a buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade, and the unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism, Chinese local refinery industry will enter high prosperity cycle starting from 2016, and bring up new market opportunity for hydrogen industry.

　　As shown by public data, local refineries maintained high operating rate in Jan 2016. 39 local refineries, concentrating in eastern part of Shandong Province, outputted in total 5.05Mt of gasoline and diesel fuel, a jumping increase over the last year. ASIACHEM believes in that, following three major factors are driving the industry entry of a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016.

　　1. Gradual grant of right to use imported oil and to direct import oil to local refineries (dual right for crude oil import); 2. A buyer market caused by price volatility in international crude oil trade; and 3. The unique Chinese refined oil product pricing mechanism.

　　Starting from 2015, state authority gradually deregulated on the use of import oil and oil import. In 2015, 13 local refineries were granted with imported oil use quota, and 6 qualified as non-state owned oil importers. At the beginning of 2016, deregulation on oil import“dual right”was further pressed forward as more local refineries submitted quota application waiting for approval. On 29th Feb. 2016, 16 Chinese local refineries announced have jointly established an oil procurement alliance to enter the international crude oil trading market by clannishness.

　　Owing to global market imbalance, oil price started a falling trend in H2 2014, and dropped down to a band around USD30/bbl at the beginning of this year, driving the market into buyer dominance. Crude price volatility not only reduced raw cost for local refineries, but also passed the initiative power of crude selection to the refineries for seeking after better raw material quality.

　　In addition, the unique Chinese refined oil pricing mechanism will result in broad profit margin for refiners at crude price level below USD40/bbl. Shown below are the calculations of crude processing/gasoline wholesale profit margin based on Q4 2015 and Jan 2016 imported crude price respectively.

　　According to Chinese Custom data, the country imported 86.88Mt of crude at the price of USD29.5bn in total, or averaged on USD339.7/t. The import price converted to CNY2140/t assuming an exchange rate of 6.3. Also shown by public data, China imported 26.691Mt of crude in Jan 2016, 4.6% less than the first month last year; averaged import price was CNY1819.4/t, a dramatic fall of 36.4% comparing to same period 2015.

　　Last time NDRC regulating refined oil price was on Jan 13th 2016, setting the ceiling prices of gasoline and diesel fuel for traffic, aviation and other specific users at CNY6365/t and 5420/t respectively (gasoline prices set for CN IV #90 and CN V #89, consumption tax, VAT, urban construction levy and education surcharge included in both). Assuming these for factory gate price estimate, wholesale price of regular gasoline, taxes excluded, would become CNY2956/t.

　　Using ASIACHEM developed refinery cost model, and taking Q4 2015/Jan 2016 crude import cost as well as gasoline wholesale price as bases for calculation, profit per ton of gasoline production (before income tax) would be CNY880 and CNY1146 respectively. This is quite encouraging against the generally shaded environment of current energy chemical industry, while additional retail profit can be accessed by bigger local refineries of own distribution channel.

　　In short, the above said multiple favorable factors will drive Chinese local refinery industry into a high prosperity cycle starting from 2016. Media have reported a number of new construction and/or expansion projects in this year, planned respectively by Chengda Novel Energy, Kelida, Hualian Petrochemical, Haihua Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli Petrochemical, Henan Fengli Petrochemical, Yatong Petrochemical, and Kenli Petrochemical, etc.

　　Hydrogen is a key feedstock to oil refining industry, and deep hydro-desulfurization is a principal mean for low-sulfur cleaner oil product formulation. Capacity expansion of Chinese local refinery industry and sustained upgrading of cleaner motor fuel standard will for sure increase hydrogen demand by the industry. ASIACHEM predicts that large scale coal to hydrogen process, as well as residue gasification to hydrogen process (under low crude oil price), by their cost advantage and steam/electricity cogeneration options, will become a main developing orientation for future refinery to secure hydrogen supply.

　　The 3rd China H2 Production & Advanced Coal Gasification Conference will be held on Mar 17th 2016 in Jinan, Shandong, China. The conference will discuss global and China’s H2 demand in oil refining industry, economical comparison of refineries’different H2 production schemes, advanced coal gasification technologies updates and application, H2 separation and purification process routes, middle and small scale H2 production solutions, successful experiences of H2 and syngas supply in chemical parks, feasibility analysis of H2 production by new energy, etc.

　　For the modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical investors and suppliers, understanding the national policy development and trends; modern coal chemical & advanced petrochemical technologies and economics; the updates of construction and operation of projects; and market demand and future growth potentials; and as a basis for corporate decision-making is very important.

　　In order to provide independent, objective industrial analysis or comments for reference of decision-makers, as the dedicated consultancy on energy & Chemicals emerging sectors, ASIACHEM has launched . Please see attached Subscription Introduction.

　　If you want to know more information about the upcoming conference, pls contact with 0086 21 50329699 116